FUTURE NATURAL GAS PRICE FORECASTING MODEL AND ITS POLICY IMPLICATION

Natural Gas Price Forecasting using Kriging Interpolation Technique and Neldar-Mead Optimization Algorithm

The prediction of economic series with high volatility and high uncertainty - such as natural gas prices - is always a challenge in econometric models, because the use of traditional linear modeling models does not allow us to predict complex and nonlinear time series. Regarding the prediction of natural gas prices,  findings point to superiority of the neural network compared to regression mod...

origins of armenia’s foreign policy and its foreign policy towards iran

foreign policy takes root from complicated matters. however, this issue may be more truth about armenia. although the new government of armenia is less than 20 years, people of this territory are the first ones who officially accepted christianity. in very past times, these people were a part of great emperors like iran, rome, and byzantium.armenia is regarded as a nation with a privileged hist...

Tehran Stock Price Modeling and Forecasting Using Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Its Comparison with the Classic Model ARIMA

Forecasting Performance of Fundamental Natural Gas Price Models, Hedging Strategies, and the Average Cost of Gas: a Study of the U.s. Natural Gas Market

We propose and estimate fundamental models for natural gas prices. We compare how well these models, as well as univariate statistical time series models of NG prices and the NYMEX futures price for natural gas, forecast spot gas prices. We find that a univariate time series model that incorporates fundamental variables related to production, storage, weather, and aggregate output performs best...

Forecasting Natural Gas Demand Using Meteorological Data: Neural Network Method

The need for prediction and patterns of gas consumption especially in the cold seasons is essential for consumption management and policy planning decision making. In residential and commercial uses which account for the bulk of gas consumption in the country the effects of meteorological variables have the highest impact on consumption.  In the present research four variables include daily ave...